Interview — Radio National with Patricia Karvelas
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
The Prime Minister is hailing a once in a lifetime opportunity to drive unemployment below 4 per cent, which has not been seen in Australia for almost 50 years. The prediction comes as the PM seeks to shift attention from the COVID pandemic by framing the coming election as a contest over economic management. Stuart Robert is the Minister for Employment and my guest this morning. Minister, welcome.
MINISTER ROBERT:
Patricia, lovely to speak to you. How fascinating is that story about Australian curlers?
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
I know, it is. And I could spend 10 minutes just talking about that, but let’s talk about the unemployment figures. It will only take about 25,000 more jobs to push the unemployment rate below 4 per cent. How soon could we see that happen? Could it be before the election in May?
MINISTER ROBERT:
The Prime Minister’s made it clear, as a goal we want to see that no later than the second half of this year. But as you said, it can happen very, very quickly. Because of the amount of effort, we’re putting into training Australians, we’re seeing a generation of skills coming through that we haven’t seen for a long, long time - 220,000 trade apprentices right now; highest since records have been kept. So this is something we are very committed on seeing happen, because it just changes lives.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
Okay. So, no later than the second half of this year. How many of these jobs will be part-time and insecure - which won’t necessarily mean better paying conditions?
MINISTER ROBERT:
The economy always throws up jobs that meets the demands and meets the needs. For example, if you’re in hospitality, it tends to have 15 per cent of jobs in visa holders, but of course a lot less visa holders now. They’re jobs that people want to part-time because they study at the same time. So the economy will move around – there’ll be a proportion that are part-time, there’ll be a proportion that are casual. The gig economy will throw up what it throws up as well as consumers tend to look at services they want in different ways. So it’s going to be right across the board, Patricia.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
Ok, but isn’t the fast-declining unemployment rate almost entirely due to the fact that immigration has collapsed over the past years? The borders are shut, Minister. Isn’t that the reason we’re seeing this figure?
MINISTER ROBERT:
It's a range of reasons.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
But that's one of the main reasons right?
MINISTER ROBERT:
One, you’ve seen a lack of internal immigration - number one. Number two, you've seen an unprecedented focus and investment in skills. So Australians who previously had no skills are getting them. For example, if you look at the JobActive caseload, which I manage - which is the load of Australians on unemployment benefits - 80 per cent of them, when we started, had no skills - none, like apart from Year 12. And we’re changing that.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
[Interrupts] Minister, Minister, you say number one is the border closure. That's overwhelmingly the reason for this unemployment rate, is it not?
MINISTER ROBERT:
No. The borders have been closed, so there's been less visa holders. There's been a greater investment in training at unprecedented levels. You’ve seen-
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
[Interrupts] Yeah. But, well- How much do you attribute the border closure to this unemployment figure?
MINISTER ROBERT:
It's hard to know. But you've also got the economy - and the Reserve Bank Governor will speak today. And the economy will grow at numbers above 3 per cent this year. So we're seeing a great rate of economic activity, a large investment in commercialisation from the Government, huge investment in skills and training to allow Australians get the skills. And of course, we've seen the borders being closed. But the borders are being opened now – 243,000 visas issued in the last- in December. So you're already seeing those numbers following through, and yet we're still looking at unemployment at 3 per cent.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
How low can it go? Could we even see a jobless rate with a two in front of it?
MINISTER ROBERT:
I think it'd be very difficult. If you think through full employment - or the non-accelerating, inflating rate of unemployment, to be sort of, technically correct on the NAIRU - that's got a three in front of it. The Reserve Bank Governor will speak about that today. And that's where if you want a job, you can get one, and you can move your family around to find employment. I think it would be extraordinarily challenging to get an unemployment with a two in front of it.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
So Minister, the Reserve Bank has revised its central jobs forecast. It sees unemployment down around 3.75 percent by the end of the year. But will you be able to lock in such low unemployment? Won't it shoot back up once the border fully reopens and migration numbers are restored?
MINISTER ROBERT:
If you think about migration settings, there are 80 per cent skilled migrants which means they need to come into the country to fill a skilled position. And right now, the unemployment- or the employment numbers growth is coming, as predominantly unskilled Australians start to get their first step - especially in vocational education and training. So skilling into the Cert III, which is the apprenticeship or trainee level, that's where a lot of the work is coming from where most of the skilled migrants come through with a higher level of experience coming through. So, no. I believe that the unemployment level as it comes down into threes, actually can be sustained.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
Doesn't that mean there's now no excuse on budget repair? The Government promised that budget repair would begin when unemployment had a four in front of it?
MINISTER ROBERT:
Yes, it means budget repair will have to occur - there's no question about that. The Treasurer made-
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
[Interrupts] So what does that, what does that involve? And will you outline what that budget repair - i.e. another word, cuts - what that will look like?
MINISTER ROBERT:
We’ll let the Treasurer outline that in the budget, which is just in seven and a half weeks’ time, Patricia. And no budget repair doesn’t not always mean cuts. Many programs, of course, self-terminate – they’re there for a while. And the best way to repair a budget, of course, is to get the economic activity moving, which means a greater sense of receipts.
And if you look through historically how budget repair has been done, governments should always look at their expenditure to ensure they’re spending within their means. But it’s more important that we grow the pie. That we grow the economic activity, and that, of course, will see tax receipts grow. The Prime Minister made that point yesterday when talking about the jobs growth.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
Minister, with such a tight labour market, workers should have more bargaining power, you would think. Why then, are wages still flatlining? And when will workers finally get a piece- decent pay rise?
MINISTER ROBERT:
You'll start to see wages growth; it’s like at circa 2.2 per cent now. In fact, most of the inflation we're seeing in the US is coming from high energy and gas prices, and of course, higher wages. So every time unemployment drives down, you start to see that pressure in the wages market. So you would expect to see wage increases flowing through. And again, the Reserve Bank Governor will touch on that today, just as an outline in terms of the economics of what happens when you get tight labour markets, you start to see the opportunity for wage increases begin to happen. It is important-
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
[Interrupts] But we have a tight labour market, and we're not seeing any evidence of it yet.
MINISTER ROBERT:
There's a lot of inertia, of course, in our labour market whereby a lot of pricing when it comes to wages, are set in the award structure and enterprise bargaining agreements - which is very different from many countries overseas. But all of that moves in time. It is important, Patricia, that wages increase, of course, continues to increase with productivity, otherwise you start to get some inflationary impacts that go with that.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
The Prime Minister was unable to name the price of a loaf of bread, a litre of petrol and a rapid antigen test. Can you?
MINISTER ROBERT:
Course I can. But it depends what you're shopping for. So I go to Woolies and my milk’s two bucks. But my wife likes to pay the highest price, because she’s from a dairy farm, so she thinks it's supporting dairy farmers. My eldest son likes almond milk; I don't know how you get milk from almonds. My younger son is into beans; I think it's called soy. And it's the same with bread. Goodness, the range of bread options our family has - I'm a big French baguette guy - and the last time I filled up it was $1.69. But the range of options you've got now is just huge in terms of shopping. So unfortunately, I think householders have to juggle multiple prices for products because multiple members of their family have different choices.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
Okay. But if members of the Government- I mean, you've given me the price ranges in your family, nice to hear them, but the Prime Minister didn't know the price of such essentials. Now, I know it's a gotcha question, but just parking that, doesn't it show a sort of sense of being out of touch with the pressure on average families that have to go and spend their money? And their disposable income seems to be, you know, less and less every week. They are struggling, Minister? Does it just demonstrate the difficulties when you can't name it?
MINISTER ROBERT:
Is a bit of a gotcha question. If you think back, Patricia, you and I have been around for quite a while...
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
[Talks over] Yeah. But I'm asked you-
MINISTER ROBERT:
… for quite a while.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
I have been around for a while, but I’m talking about the substantive part of that question. Which is about being in touch with voters.
MINISTER ROBERT:
[Talks over] I know. That is true. The- And from the Prime Minister's point of view, if you’d sat there and Jen was with him, she’d be able to rattle off all the prices of all the things they buy, and I'm sure they have that conversation often as all families do. My wife and I certainly do. I think there was a Ray Martin question, probably in the 80s, where it first kicked off.
The Prime Minister is well and truly in touch because he travels regularly - and that's the beauty of getting out and about. I’m in Gosford this morning, out of the University of Newcastle, talking through our Accelerator program and what commercialisation means. And then we'll talk and walk with everyday Australians, as we do, to get a feel for the issues they're facing. So the Prime Minister is extraordinarily in touch, Patricia, with the issues of everyday Australians.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
The Prime Minister has admitted to some mistakes in the handling of the pandemic, but there was no apology. Why is it so hard for Scott Morrison to say sorry?
MINISTER ROBERT:
It's not. The Prime Minister did apologise, because it is difficult.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
[Talks over] No. He apologised for the impact of the pandemic, generally, on people - not on the Government's handling of the pandemic and the policies. He didn't- That was not the apology. The apology was the impact of the pandemic more broadly. Why can't he say sorry about the Government's different mistakes that it's made?
MINISTER ROBERT:
[Indistinct] Governments of all persuasions will all make errors. Goodness, I've made enough of them, and I'll always put my hand up to say I’ve made a mistake and apologise if necessary. And so will the Prime Minister. Because there's, there’s no rule book in this.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
[Talks over] But he didn’t say, sorry, Minister. But he didn't.
MINISTER ROBERT:
I was there, and he certainly apologised in terms of the impact this is all having on Australians. Yes, Governments will make mistakes, there's no question about that, and then we'll find better ways of doing it. But I'd rather be in Australia, Patricia, right now, with one of the highest vaccination rates, lowest unemployment rates, highest rates of economic activity, more Australians in work now than pre-pandemic - one of only a few countries that can boast that. Our nation has done exceptionally well, and we've all done that together.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
He didn't apologise. He talked about the impact of the pandemic. He didn't actually own the Government's mistakes and say sorry for the vaccine rollout, or the slow booster roll out. We didn't hear an apology about that, Minister.
MINISTER ROBERT:
Well, we said we'd actually have the nation vaccinated by the end of October, and we achieved it mid-October, for a start – just to get the facts straight.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
[Talks over] So, you don’t think you need to apologise?
MINISTER ROBERT:
Well, we said in March we’d be vaccinated by the end of October, and we were vaccinated by the end of October.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
Okay.
MINISTER ROBERT:
Ninety-five per cent double dose now – it’s an extraordinary result the country has done. The Prime Minister owns the Government's mistakes. Every government makes errors, as all humans do. And we all own that. We put our hand in the air. And we seek to do better next time.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
Alright. Minister, you are also the Acting Education Minister. Citipointe Christian College in Brisbane is telling students that they must just denounce homosexuality, and must agree to specific gender roles. How much funding does the college receive from the Federal Government? And, will you withhold that money unless that's called drops these contracts?
MINISTER ROBERT:
Well, the first step is for the State Education Minister, Grace Grace - she's referred it through to the accreditation board at a state level - which is appropriate, exactly what they should do. And we'll get the result from that. So we’ll let Grace deal with that issue, and I'll be speaking to her on Friday to get a brief in terms of where that leads to.
But it’s important we all understand that every Australian child has the right to go to school, and we are absolutely committed to ensuring that our anti-discrimination laws are met, and the community expectations are met.
There is no reason why any school would ever want to not have a child come to their school, regardless, full stop.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
[Talks over] So are you offended by what this school is demanding?
MINISTER ROBERT:
I think the school needs to show a lot more grace. There is nothing more important than getting kids back to school right now - four million kids will be going back to school from challenging environments, challenging home environments-
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
[Interrupts] So when you say- sorry, I don't mean to be rude, to interrupt, but when you say more grace, I mean these contracts are likely permissible under current federal law. Will you support your colleagues who want changes to the Sex Discrimination Act, to try and fast track protections for LGBTIQ students?
MINISTER ROBERT:
Well, I want to speak to Minister Grace this Friday first. I want to see the outcome from the accreditation board in terms of where that lands, what that's up to. And I'll certainly be speaking to my colleagues to get a range of views.
But no school should be rejecting children, full stop.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
And, Minister, just finally, the Gladys Berejiklian text exchange with one of your unnamed senior colleagues - the Prime Minister criticised as horrible and a complete psycho. What does that say about Scott Morrison when your own side of politics describes him in such unflattering terms?
MINISTER ROBERT:
My understanding is Gladys Berejiklian is has put out a statement. I haven't read it, but I'm informed that, that she can't recall it. Suffice to say, look, I joined with Scott Morrison 14 years ago, Patricia. I’ve lived with him for 10 years in Canberra. I think I know him better than anyone other than his wife. He's an extraordinary human being in what he's doing, and he's leading in an extraordinary time.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
Thank you for your time.
MINISTER ROBERT:
Great to talk to you, as always.
PATRICIA KARVELAS:
The Minister for Employment and the Acting Education Minister, Stuart Robert, joining us there.